Iraq :  Pentagon Plan the Last One Standing

STRATFOR, 28 June 2002

Summary

Retired Gen. Wayne Downing, a key figure in the debate over how to
fight Iraq, has resigned, leaving a clearer path for a Pentagon proposal
nicknamed "Desert Storm Lite."  But even without the opposition posed by
Downing, the Pentagon's plan for ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
may prove unworkable.


Analysis

Gen. Wayne Downing, who was brought out of retirement after Sept. 11 to
serve as a deputy national security adviser, resigned suddenly from the
anti-terrorism position on June 27.  Downing, who was a four-star Army
general and the former chief of Special Operations Command, departs only
nine months after taking the White House job.

Although his official duties focused on the al Qaeda threat, Downing
was one of the loudest voices in the debate over the necessity and
methods for destroying the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. An
unabashed hawk, Downing countered the Pentagon's Iraq proposal, nicknamed
"Desert Storm Lite," with an unconventional plan that relied on air
power, special operations forces and Iraqi defectors to oust Hussein. The
general's departure removes one of the last nodes of opposition to the
Pentagon's approach, but this does not necessarily mean an acceleration
in war-planning or preparations, or even a final decision on a military
strike.

Earlier this year, when war cries against Iraq were at a much higher
pitch, the Pentagon hatched a plan for a military campaign against
Baghdad that was very similar to that followed during the Gulf War. A
200,000-strong force of armor, infantry and aircraft would be assembled over
two to three months, presumably in Kuwait and Turkey, and unleashed
against Iraq's 500,000 soldiers.

Both U.S. President George W. Bush and Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld publicly blasted Pentagon planners for their lack of creativity.
However, between the lines the Pentagon was advising caution -- suggesting
that the White House should ease off its strident anti-Hussein posture.

Downing played a key role in this debate. He had advised the opposition
Iraqi National Congress since 1998 and helped the group refine a plan
for overthrowing Hussein. That plan, drawn up before Sept. 11, looked
quite similar to the later U.S. campaign against the Taliban: Special
Operations troops would advise and train local fighters, who would seize a
deserted air base in southern Iraq under U.S. air cover. Any Iraqi
units massed to attack the airfield would be destroyed from the air while
isolated units would be encouraged to defect.

Downing's plan had a few advocates, especially among civilian staff in
the Pentagon and White House. And his anti-terrorism position gave him
a soapbox from which to plug the issue.

The reasons behind Downing's departure are unclear. Media reports
suggest everything from frustration with the slow pace of government to
disenchantment with his inability to exercise sole control over
anti-terrorism efforts.

Whatever the reason, his departure means "Desert Storm Lite" is
essentially the sole remaining proposal for ousting Hussein -- but that
doesn't mean an invasion of Iraq is imminent. From a logistical perspective,
executing the Pentagon's strategy would require a substantial amount of
planning and material preparation, which would be made even more
difficult by the current dispersal of U.S. forces around the globe.

However, the strategy is complicated mainly by political factors.
Washington almost certainly wants the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan
to calm down somewhat before it gets involved in an entirely new
crisis. Also, Arab states would need to be in relative agreement with the
U.S. plan.

The complexity of the Pentagon's plan actually may push back the start
of a campaign or cause it to be shelved indefinitely.