UN emergency evaluations

By Irwin Arieff

Source: http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2004746

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - As many as half a million Iraqis could require
medical treatment as a result of serious injuries suffered in the early
stages of a war on Iraq, U.N. emergency planners said in a document
disclosed Tuesday.

The total includes some 100,000 expected to be injured as a direct result
of combat and a further 400,000 wounded as an indirect result of the
devastation, according to estimates prepared by the World Health
Organization, the document said.

The confidential U.N. assessment was drafted a month ago but an edited
version was posted Tuesday on the Web site of a British group opposed to
sanctions on Iraq
(http://www.cam.ac.uk/societies/casi/info/undocs/war021210.pdf)

U.N. officials confirmed the authenticity of the document, which assumes
that unlike the 1991 Gulf War, a new war in Iraq would develop beyond an
initial aerial bombardment into a large scale and protracted ground
offensive.

"The resultant devastation would undoubtedly be great," the U.N. planners
concluded. The estimates were based on material from several different
U.N. organizations.

The U.N. staff has been quietly planning for months how to cope with the
humanitarian fallout from a conflict in Iraq.

But the process has been kept largely under wraps for fear it might be
interpreted as a sign the world body had concluded the weapons inspections
now under way would fail to avert war.

The confidential assessment assumes that Iraqi oil production would be
shut down and the Iraqi electricity network, railway and road
transportation systems would be significantly damaged.

U.N. officials had previously disclosed that as many as 4.5 million to 9.5
million of Iraq's 26.5 million people could quickly need outside food to
survive once an attack began.

HUGE HOMELESS PROBLEM

War would also produce a huge refugee problem, driving some 900,000 Iraqis
into neighboring countries, with about 100,000 of those requiring
immediate assistance as soon as they arrived, according to the U.N.
estimate.

Another 2 million could be driven from their homes but remain inside Iraq,
where access by relief agencies would be a particular problem due to the
fighting, the planners say.

The U.N. arms inspections resumed last month, after a four-year hiatus,
under a U.N. Security Council resolution giving Baghdad a final chance to
eliminate any chemical, biological or nuclear weapons or face "serious
consequences."

Chief arms inspector Hans Blix is due to provide an interim report to the
Security Council on his findings Thursday. His first in-depth report is
set for Jan. 27.

President Bush, who favors a "regime change" in Baghdad, has threatened to
disarm Iraq through force if it fails to act on its own, although
Washington says no decision has been made to go to war.

According to the assessment, Iraq can be expected to have four months'
supply of basic medical supplies on hand at the start of a conflict.
However, some key supplies would still likely be in short supply or
nonexistent, it said.

Children under 5, pregnant women and mothers who are breast-feeding their
infants "will be particularly vulnerable because of the likely absence of
a functioning primary health care system in a post-conflict situation," it
said.

"Furthermore, the outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic
proportions is very likely," it said. "Diseases such as cholera and
dysentery thrive in the environment ... When determining the requirement
for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, these factors must be
considered."

See also: "Confidential UN Document Predicts Humanitarian Emergency in Event of War on Iraq"
at: http://www.cam.ac.uk/societies/casi/pr/pr030107undoc.html