Edition: 2 Juillet / July, 2005

English summary :

   Below you will find UN and NGO analysis and related articles in which experts predicted a humanitarian nightmare if the US attacked Iraq.

  The Bush administration led it's country in a path that we knew would kill up to 100,000 people while there was not ANY immediat threat and while there were many non violent initiatives that could have been undertaken if we really had wanted to help the people in Iraq and to bring about democratisation.  Yet let us mention that the UN is also responsible.

    Even now that the invasion is complete, countless people are dying in silence, mostly from water-borne diseases (lack of clean water and shortages of medication).  These people are not officially counted amongst the death caused by the invasion and the occupation, yet these are the harsh aftermaths of war.

:: For more current information about the occupation of Iraq, visit the Siriel-Media »

- Michaël Lessard


Résumé en français :

    Voici des analyses de l'ONU et de divers experts (toutes en anglais, mais avec quelques extraits traduits) qui prédisaient un cauchemar si les États-Unis bombardaient l'Irak.  En somme, selon plusieurs experts, tant non gouvernementaux qu'onusiens, plusieurs centaines de milliers de personnes risquaient la mort par cause de famine et d'absence de services publics engendrées par une telle guerre faisant suite à 12 années d'embargo global.  

    L'administration Bush a mené son pays vers une action que nous savions allait tuer jusqu'à 100,000 personnes alors qu'il n'y avait AUCUNE menace immédiate et alors qu'il y avait de nombreuses initiatives non violentes à entreprendre si nous avions voulu vraiment aider les gens en Irak ou susciter une démocratisation.  Mentionnons toutefois que l'ONU aussi est responsable.

   Maintenant que l'invasion est terminée, un nombre incalculable de personnes meurent en silence, surtout par cause des maladies transmises par l'eau non potable combinées avec des pénuries de médicaments.  Ces gens ne sont pas officiellement comptabilisés comme morts par cause de l'invasion et de l'occupation, pourtant ce sont les conséquences de la guerre.

:: Pour des informations plus actuelles sur l'occupation de l'Irak, visitez le Siriel-Media »

- Michaël Lessard


[Note : Ci-dessous, il a deux extraits en français, mais le reste est en anglais.]

Collateral Damage: the health and environmental costs of war on Iraq
by Medact, a health professionals' organisation challenging barriers to health (UK)
.
   The evidence-based report summarises from a public health perspective the effects of the previous Gulf War, and outlines the likely impact of another war on the people of Iraq, on the combatants and on the wider world. Other reports from the UN and the International Study Team are also available here.

An excellent visual summary of the predictable effects of a new war on Iraq: it is a PDF file (50K).


:::::: UN LEAKED DOCUMENT ABOUT HUMANITARIAN IMPACT OF WAR :::::


Internal UN Documents on the Humanitarian Impact of War on Iraq (February 13, 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0107ocha.pdf


(CASI/CESR: British coalition shares leaded UN document. In PDF format.)
   
The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that 30 % of Iraqi children under 5, or 1.26 million,"would be at risk of death from malnutrition" in the event of war.  The confidential draft questions the ability of the UN agencies and other aid organizations to face such a humanitarian emergency.


Iraq War Could Put 10 Million in Need of Aid, UN Reports (January 7, 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/2003/0107need.htm


(Washington Post, writting about the CASI info. named above)
   
A US-led war against Iraq could place 10 million Iraqi civilians at risk of hunger and disease, according to a leaked UN contingency plan (click here to download it: PDF format) to coordinate the UN's humanitarian response to a war.  The report calls attention to fears that delivering aid in the first weeks of an attack may be impossible.


UN Sees Huge Aid Needs in Case of War on Iraq [no longer available], Dec. 23, 2002, By Irwin Arieff (Reuters).

     U.N. emergency planners are quietly warning that millions of Iraqis could require immediate food aid or face starvation in the event Washington goes to war against Baghdad, U.N. sources said on Monday.
     As many as 4.5 million to 9.5 million of Iraq's 22 million people could quickly need outside food to survive once a military campaign began, the sources said, citing U.N. contingency plans.

 • Extrait (trad. libre):   
      Selon des contacts onusiens, les plans d'urgence de l'ONU avertissent discrètement que des millions d'Irakiens pourraient avoir besoin d'aide alimentaire immédiate sans quoi ceux-ci se retrouveraient en situation de famine advenant que Washington aille en guerre contre Bagdad.
    De 4.5 à 9.5 millions de personnes, parmi les 22 millions d'Irakiens, pourraient rapidement avoir besoin de nourriture en provenance de l'extérieur du pays pour survivre une fois qu'une campagne militaire serait lancée...


:::::: OTHER UN EVALUATIONS OF HUMANITARIAN IMPACT OF WAR :::::


 Counting the Dead (January 29, 2003) [Excellent article:
the link was improved]

(Guardian [a British newspaper])
   A leaked report from a special UN taskforce estimates the staggering humanitarian effects of a war on Iraq, calculating that half a million people in Iraq could require medical treatment as a direct or indirect result of such a war.


U.N. Sees 500,000 Iraqi Casualties at Start of War, By Irwin Arieff, Jan. 7, 2003
(Reuters) - As many as half a million Iraqis could require medical treatment as a result of serious injuries suffered in the early stages of a war on Iraq, U.N. emergency planners said in a document disclosed Tuesday [Jan.7].
   The total includes some 100,000 expected to be injured as a direct result of combat and a further 400,000 wounded as an indirect result of the devastation, according to estimates prepared by the World Health Organization, the document said.

 • Extrait (trad. libre):
   Jusqu'à un demi million d'Irakien-nes pourraient avoir besoin de traitements médicaux par cause de blessures sérieuses dès les premiers stages d'une guerre en Irak, selon ce que des planificateur-trices d'urgence de l'ONU ont dit dans un document [7 jan.].
   Ce total inclut quelques 100 000 qui seraient blessés directement lors des combats et 400 000 blessés de plus par causes indirectes de la dévastation, selon des estimations préparées par l'Organisation mondiale de la santé citées dans ce document.


'Grim Picture' Seen for Iraqis (February 14 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0214grimpict.htm


(Los Angeles Times)
   Secretary General Kofi Annan held a private meeting with the Security Council’s 15 ambassadors regarding possible consequences of a war with Iraq. According to leaked UN documents an invasion could cause the deaths of nearly 1 million children from malnutrition.


:::::: ARTICLES:
EXPERTS AND POLITICIANS TALK OF THE PREDICTABLE HORROR :::::

'Unauthorised' War Could Worsen the Refugee and Food Crisis, Says Short (February 13, 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0213unauthor.htm


(Independent [a British newspaper])
In the event of war without UN authorization, according to the
Secretary of State for International Development (UK), the consequences in
terms of security and food are going to be devastating for the people of Iraq.


Health Experts Warn of Iraq War Consequences (January 24, 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/2003/0124warn.htm


(Reuters)
   In an unprecedented move, more than 550 international health experts signed an open letter urging British Prime Minister Tony Blair to consider the horrific humanitarian effects of war on Iraq.  The group is considering sending a similar letter to President Bush.


Vulnerable But Ignored: How Catastrophe Threatens the 12 Million Children of Iraq (February 12, 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0212vulnbut.htm


(Independent [a British newspaper])
   In the event of a war, children in Iraq will endure devastating consequences. According to a team of international investigators, Iraqi children are already suffering “significant psychological harm.”


Iraqi Water and Sanitation Systems Could Be Military Target, Says Ministry of Defense (February 2, 2003)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0202water.htm


(Independent [a British newspaper])
   The British Ministry of Defense has admitted that the electricity system that powers water and sanitation for the Iraqi people could be considered a "military target," despite warnings that its destruction would cause a humanitarian tragedy.


Toward A Human Disaster (October 14, 2002)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/2002/1014disaster.htm


(Boston Globe)
    Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Kenneth H. Bacon stresses the need for meeting the humanitarian challenges in Iraq.  He argues that a war in Iraq would create a humanitarian disaster and that “preparation to save the people of Iraq is at least as important as planning to remove the president of Iraq.”


The Humanitarian Implications of Military Action against Iraq (September 4, 2002)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/2002/0904save.htm


'Save the Children UK' expresses concern about a possible military intervention against Baghdad, which would gravely exacerbate the humanitarian crisis created by the long-lasting sanctions in Iraq.


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