TORCHING CHECHNYA TO COOL ITS FIRES


By Gordon Barthos - Foreign Affairs
The Toronto Star, October 29, 1999.


RUSSIA'S NEW PREMIER Vladimir Putin has as heavy a hand with the irony as his boss, President Boris Yeltsin, has with the vodka.

They both lay it on straight up, and four fingers deep.

There was Putin, this week, oozing sympathy for the ``very sad'' people of Chechnya - even as Russian warplanes yesterday made 100 rocketing, bombing and strafing runs in and around the capital Grozny, turning homes and factories into kindling.

Moscow wishes the Chechens nothing but peace, Putin would have us believe.

But the Chechens report that the encircling Russian army, now 100,000 strong, has killed more than 3,000 people since Sept. 5, and sent 200,000 fleeing for their lives.

Yet the grateful survivors, Putin assures us, have begged their Russian buddies not to pull out and ``abandon'' them.

Yeltsin, too, promises that ``Russian soldiers and officers will return peace and calm to the long-suffering land.''

Lucky, lucky Chechens.

The only peace Chechnya's 1.2 million miserable people are likely to know in the coming weeks and months is the peace of the grave.

Maybe.

The Russians bombed a funeral cortege yesterday.

But not to worry. Those rockets, bombs and ordnance aren't falling on ``real'' Chechens, Putin assures us.  Just on come-from-aways.

``We have no alternative but to restore order in Chechnya and get rid of the terrorists who have come from abroad to the republic: Negroes, Arabs. Are there no Chechens here?'' he snapped.  ``Who is in charge of this land, for heaven's sake?''

The question is who, if anyone, is in charge in Moscow?  This is mission creep gone ballistic.

The Russians bring to mind the U.S. Army major at Ben Tre in Vietnam 1968 who told the Associated Press, infamously, that ``it became necessary to destroy the town to save it.'' Moscow, too, seems hell-bent on burning down the neighbour's house to smoke out the rats.

Chechnya is a mess, and has been since it declared independence in 1991, fought the Russians to a bloody draw in the 1994-96 war that took 80,000 lives, and was left a free but smouldering study in banditry and anarchy.  After the war the Russians took the view that Chechnya had fallen off the face of the Earth.  It pretty much had.

The current Chechen president, Aslan Maskhadov, was elected.  But he's a captive of his republic's factional politics, devastating poverty and general lawlessness.

Today, Chechen extremists including the guerrilla commander Shamil Basayev roam the region funded by foreigners, posing a security threat.

This past summer they went too far, using Chechnya as a springboard for subversion and terror, twice invading neighbouring Dagestan in a vain bid to fan an anti-Moscow revolt across the Caucasus, and planting terror bombs that killed 300 Russians over the summer.

That led Moscow to mobilize security forces to protect Dagestan, seal Chechnya's porous border and hammer the terror groups.

But unleashing warplanes to indiscriminately kill civilians in downtown Grozny and create a humanitarian crisis, is a disproportionate response that crosses every red line.  So does slaughtering 150 people in Grozny's market and at a maternity hospital.  Or rocketing bridges, roads and oil refineries.

Now that Moscow has taken the war to Grozny's gates, it can no longer credibly claim to be engaged in a defensive police action.  What has been unfolding in the past few days looks more like a crime against humanity.

Canada shouldn't be afraid to say so, to lobby Moscow to knock it off, and to work with the U.S. and other partners to bring pressure to bear.

We should also offer Chechnya a helping hand when this round of fighting cools.  Until the republic gets some serious help, it will remain a pot on the boil.

Every rocket attack and bombing run just fans anti-Russian sentiment.

This lunatic grudge match - the Russians openly aim to avenge their humiliation in 1994-96 - isn't likely to wind down until soldiers start coming home in body bags in big numbers.

Overly ambitious Russian politicians and commanders are now talking of besieging Grozny for years if need be, starting next month.  Of starving its government, installing a pro-Moscow regime, getting the Chechens to lay down their arms, and supervising a ``democratic'' vote so that the people can get it right this time around.  In short, reimposing Moscow's hated rule.

They also claim that the Chechens are so fed up with themselves that they welcome this assault. That's absurd.

Chechnya has been ungovernable since the day it declared independence in 1991, as the Soviet Union crumbled, and probably well before that.  This war won't alter that.

The Russians may indeed manage to crush Chechnya, temporarily, through brute force.  But they will not pacify the place. They would have stood a better chance of winning the Chechens' minds and hearts (and undermining the terrorists) by building bridges after the last war, by nursing wounds and by lending people a hand to repair shattered lives.

Instead, they let Chechnya slide deeper into anarchy.  And now they are bombing bridges, picking at scabs, and giving people the back of their hand.

And kidding themselves that theirs is a winning strategy.



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